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Unveiling the Chinese Growth Puzzle

Issue date:2017-10-17

Prof. Zhu felt that UWC students are really inquisitive and are impressed by the interest shown in economics and the various questions they asked which demonstrate the diverse perspectives of the students due to their different backgrounds.  He also felt it was an honor for him to address this topic in a global context in front of a multi-national community.

On October 9th 2017, Dr. Zhu Tian was invited as an honored guest speaker to give a speech entitled “Explaining China’s Economic Rise: A global comparative perspective” at our Global Issues Forum.  Dr. Zhu is the Professor of Economics, Associate Dean and Director of EMBA Programme at China Europe International Business School (CEIBS).  He is also the author of the book “The Chinese Growth Puzzle – A Global Comparative Perspective”.

During the speech, Prof. Zhu gave a detailed and comprehensive analysis of the reasons behind China’s fast growth over the past 30 years, using a global comparative methodology and concluded that China is already at the upper middle income level, and the era of double digit growth is over.  But based on the experience of other East Asian economies, China may be able to maintain 5-7% annual growth rate until it becomes a high income country.  However, China also faces many challenges such as environmental issues and rule of law.  He encouraged UWC students from all over the world to bear in mind their responsibilities, take actions to find solutions to those challenges and create a better world for future generations.

Prof. Zhu analyzed the reasons behind China’s fast growth   

Although it seemed a daunting task to analyze the reasons for China’s growth over the past 30 years in a 30 minute speech, Prof. Zhu was able to illuminate the distinctive characteristics of China’s economic growth story clearly and vividly by drawing comparison with other developing countries and developed countries.  He not only impressed students with his insight and unique perspective but also his humor and witty remarks.

Prof. Zhu discussed some of the popular belief that resulted in the high economic growth of China and why they were not convincing.  One of the belief is that China's rapid economic growth was related to the quality and efficiency of the government, but according to empirical data survey, China's scores in this regard are only slightly higher than the global average. Thus, it is insufficient in explaining China's fast economic growth.  Another one is that many people believe the high growth is related to the large population of China. This statement is partially true, as China is indeed the most populous country with the largest number of people below the age of 35, but more in-depth study found that this has not been the biggest driver of the economic growth either.  

He believes that China's rapid economic development can be attributed to two factors, one of which is investment. Chinese people save the highest percentage of their GDP in the world at 49%. From that 49% they invest 46% in their own country and the remaining 3% is invested by them in other countries such as the US. This ability of Chinese people to accumulate physical capital has helped them immensely in achieving rapid economic growth. But on the other hand, Prof. Zhu pointed out that in the world happiness ranking, China does not rank high in the whole world.  He explained this phenomenon by a simple psychological observation, “Consumption makes people happy, but savings do not.”

Prof. Zhu making his conclusion on what has driven China's fast economic growth

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 Prof. Zhu making his conclusion on what has driven China's fast economic growth

Secondly, the quality of the Chinese education system is relatively higher than that in other developing countries. Due to this reason, the Chinese labor force is of high productivity and is able to absorb existing Western technologies and benefit from the technological progresses.

After the presentation, students from Bahamas, China, Ireland, Latvia, Morocco, Nigeria and Pakistan continued to bombard Prof. Zhu with more questions on China’s economy, China’s foreign trade and issues with the economic development of their respective countries.

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Prof. Zhu answered UWC students' questions

Prof. Zhu felt that UWC students are really inquisitive and are impressed by the interest shown in economics and the various questions they asked which demonstrate the diverse perspectives of the students due to their different backgrounds.  He also felt it was an honor for him to address this topic in a global context in front of a multi-national community.   

UWC students were thrilled upon meeting Prof. Zhu. They found his speech very intriguing and engaging. A student thought that Prof. Zhu presented boring economic theories in a compelling way which grabbed the attention of the audience. He also said that the speech sparked his interest in further studies in economics.

A group of students met with Prof. Zhu after GIF and asked more questions

Head of the humanities department and economics teacher Ms. Shirla Sum said that “Prof. Zhu's speech was not only thought-provoking but it also highlighted the value of a comparative approach in Economic research.  After the presentation, students discussed further some of the factors contributing to the high economic growth in Prof. Zhu’s speech, such as the quality of China’s education.  Some students think that to keep up with the development of the technology, China's education system needs to be improved so that it can inspire more innovation and creativity.  On the other hand, the serious inequality in the allocation of education resources should be addressed in order to maintain economic growth in the long run.

Vice Principal and Chinese Programme Director Ms. Li Ping said that Prof. Zhu's topic on China’s economic growth was an important part of  the "Chinese study" programme which is designed to help Chinese and foreign students to gain a better understanding of China’s development in different fields.  Prof. Zhu’s presentation was "vivid and persuasive, which directly provoked young people to think about issues having an impact on China’s economic development.

Written by: Jing Wang & Neha Ahmed, DP1, GIF Team

Weiyuan Shen, Pre-DP, Member of Media Group

Photo by: Shengkai Xu, DP2, Member of Media Group

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